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A list of all the posts and pages found on the site. For you robots out there, there is an XML version available for digesting as well.

Pages

Posts

portfolio

Monitoring Relevant Shifts in Functional Time Series

This working paper develops adjusted-range self-normalized inference for relevant change-point detection in weakly dependent functional time series, delivering tuning-free procedures and an empirical application to Bitcoin options implied-volatility smiles.

Online Monitoring of Distributional Granger Causality

This working paper develops a unified framework for online monitoring of distributional Granger causality using self-normalized score detectors and anytime-valid quantile e-processes, with an empirical application to BTC downside-risk monitoring using Deribit option signals.

Mathematical Sciences for Trustworthy AI Corpora

This working paper develops a mathematical-sciences framework for trustworthy AI corpora, organizing corpus trustworthiness around representativeness, consistency, fairness, privacy, and robustness across the lifecycle of collection, cleaning, augmentation, and auditing.

Online Monitoring of Structural Change with Adjusted-Range Self-Normalization

This working paper proposes an adjusted-range-based self-normalized sequential monitoring scheme (RSMS) for online change-point detection, offering significant improvements in performance, especially in the presence of structural shifts. The method avoids tuning parameter choices, making it more robust and efficient for high-frequency data.

publications

A bootstrap test for comparing two variances: simulation of size and power in small samples

Published in Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 2011

This paper develops a bootstrap test for comparing two variances, focusing on its simulation of size and power in small samples.

Recommended citation: Sun, J., Chernick, M. R., & LaBudde, R. A. (2011). "A bootstrap test for comparing two variances: simulation of size and power in small samples." Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 21(6), 1079-1093.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

An information diffusion-based model of oil futures price

Published in Energy Economics, 2013

This paper proposes an information diffusion-based model for predicting oil futures prices, addressing the dynamics of information spread in financial markets.

Recommended citation: Li, Z., Sun, J., & Wang, S. (2013). "An information diffusion-based model of oil futures price." Energy Economics, 36, 518-525.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

Mechanisms and performance of Chinese bear markets and policy suggestions

Published in Palgrave Macmillan, London, UK, 2015

In this chapter, which concerned the 2006–2007 bull market, we analyzed and discussed a number of features related to bull markets in China. Specifically, their formation mechanism, performance characteristics, relevant empirical observations related to index design, as well as their terminal signals. This chapter is structured as follows. In the first section, we will detect the bearish/bullish phases of Chinese stock markets and provide some background information and historical facts. In the second section, we will analyze the ‘risk-return’ trade-off relationships in Chinese stock markets with a focus on the differences of these relationship between bearish and bullish phases. In the third section, we will derive an asset pricing model based on information diffusion; and establish a tri-variate trade-off relationship in terms of amplitude, duration and volatility persistence.1 Finally, we will analyze some institutional problems of Chinese stock markets that have emerged during their adjustment phases.

Recommended citation: Li, Z., Sun, J., & Cole, M. (2015). Mechanisms and performance of Chinese bear markets and policy suggestions. In Li, Z., & Cheng, S. (Eds.), The Chinese Stock Market Volume II (pp. 125–189). Palgrave Macmillan.

Mechanisms and performance of Chinese bear markets and policy suggestions

Published in Science Press, Beijing, China, 2015

This book chapter examines Chinese bear market episodes and their underlying mechanisms, and provides policy-oriented suggestions based on China’s market environment. The discussion connects market behavior with institutional settings and regulatory context, offering a structured reference for understanding downside market dynamics.

Recommended citation: Li, Z., & Sun, J. (2015). Mechanisms and performance of Chinese bear markets and policy suggestions. In Li, Z., & Cheng, S. (Eds.), China's Stock Market Review and Outlook: 2002–2013. Science Press.

An RKHS-based approach to double-penalized regression in high-dimensional partially linear models

Published in Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 2018

This paper introduces an RKHS-based approach for double-penalized regression in high-dimensional partially linear models.

Recommended citation: Cui, W., Cheng, H., & Sun, J. (2018). "An RKHS-based approach to double-penalized regression in high-dimensional partially linear models." Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 168, 201-210.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

Chinese leadership: Provincial perspectives on promotion and performance

Published in Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space, 2018

This paper investigates Chinese leadership practices, focusing on provincial perspectives on promotion and performance.

Recommended citation: Sun, J., Cole, M., Huang, Z., & Wang, S. (2018). "Chinese leadership: Provincial perspectives on promotion and performance." Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space, 37(4), 750-772.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

基于Katz分布的计数数据自回归模型以及其在预测呼吸系统患病人数中的应用

Published in 应用概率统计, 2020

本论文提出了一种基于Katz分布的计数数据自回归模型,并将其应用于预测呼吸系统疾病的发病人数。该方法在处理高维数据时表现出了较好的预测能力。

Recommended citation: 孙佳婧(第一作者、通讯作者)等 (2020). "基于Katz分布的计数数据自回归模型以及其在预测呼吸系统患病人数中的应用." 应用概率统计, 36(6): 551-568.

基于调整样本值域的自正则结构性变化的检验

Published in 统计研究, 2022

本论文提出了一种基于调整样本值域的自正则方法,用于检验时间序列中的结构性变化。该方法在强依赖性和重尾分布下表现良好,能够提升结构性变化检验的准确性。

Recommended citation: 孙佳婧(通讯作者)等 (2022). "基于调整样本值域的自正则结构性变化的检验." 统计研究 (Statistical Research), 39(04): 122-133.

Adjusted-range self-normalized confidence interval construction for censored dependent data

Published in Economics Letters, 2022

This paper proposes a self-normalized method for constructing confidence intervals for censored dependent data, improving the robustness and accuracy of inference.

Recommended citation: Sun, J., Hong, Y., Linton, O., & Zhao, X. (2022). "Adjusted-range self-normalized confidence interval construction for censored dependent data." Economics Letters, 110873.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

Innovation, carbon emissions, and the pollution haven hypothesis: Climate capitalism and global reinterpretations

Published in Journal of Environmental Management, 2022

This paper examines the relationship between innovation, carbon emissions, and the pollution haven hypothesis in the context of climate capitalism.

Recommended citation: Jiang, W., Cole, M., Sun, J., & Wang, S. (2022). "Innovation, carbon emissions, and the pollution haven hypothesis: Climate capitalism and global reinterpretations." Journal of Environmental Management, 307, 114465.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

Social media interactions between government and the public: A Chinese case study of government WeChat official accounts on information related to COVID-19

Published in Frontiers in Psychology, 2022

This paper analyzes social media interactions between the Chinese government and the public using WeChat official accounts during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Recommended citation: Shao, C., Guan, X., Sun, J., Cole, M., & Liu, G. (2022). "Social media interactions between government and the public: A Chinese case study of government WeChat official accounts on information related to COVID-19." Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 955376.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

Governmental Capabilities and Responsiveness: Global Investigations into CO2 Emissions and Decarbonization

Published in International Journal of Public Administration, 2024

This paper investigates the relationship between governmental capabilities and CO2 emissions in the context of global decarbonization efforts.

Recommended citation: Cole, M., Sun, J., Jiang, W., & Zang, L. (2024). "Governmental Capabilities and Responsiveness: Global Investigations into CO2 Emissions and Decarbonization." International Journal of Public Administration, 1-19.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

Kolmogorov-Smirnov type testing for structural breaks: A new adjusted-range-based self-normalization approach

Published in Journal of Econometrics, 2024

This paper introduces a novel method for structural break testing using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov type test, enhanced by an adjusted-range-based self-normalization approach.

Recommended citation: Hong, Y., Linton, O., McCabe, B., Sun, J., & Wang, S. (2024). "Kolmogorov-Smirnov type testing for structural breaks: A new adjusted-range-based self-normalization approach." Journal of Econometrics, 238(2), 105603.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

Structural stability of functional data: A new adjusted-range-based self-normalization approach

Published in Economics Letters, 2025

We propose an adjusted-range-based self-normalization method for testing structural stability in functional data. This approach improves computational efficiency and performs well in empirical applications to temperature data from New York Central Park Weather Station.

Recommended citation: Sun, J., Hong, Y., Lin, Z., & Xu, W. (2025). "Structural stability of functional data: A new adjusted-range-based self-normalization approach." Economics Letters, 253, 112350.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

Adjusted-range-based self-normalized autocorrelation tests

Published in Economics Letters, 2025

This paper develops an adjusted-range-based self-normalized method for autocorrelation tests in time series analysis. The approach enhances statistical power while maintaining robustness against model misspecification.

Recommended citation: Sun, J., Zhu, M., & Linton, O. (2025). "Adjusted-range-based self-normalized autocorrelation tests." Economics Letters, 251, 112315.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

金融科技学 (FinTech)

Forthcoming from 高等教育出版社(Higher Education Press), 2026

This is a Chinese-language textbook on financial technology.

Recommended citation: Sun, J., Hong, Y., Wang, S., & Yang, Y. (forthcoming 2026). 金融科技学 (FinTech). Higher Education Press.

Econometrics and Time Series Methods: Theory, Applications, and R Implementation

Forthcoming with Springer, 2026

“Econometrics and Time Series Methods: Theory, Applications, and R Implementation” covers a wide range of topics including regression models, univariate and multivariate time series, volatility modeling, nonparametric and semiparametric methods, HAR inference, autoregressive filtering and state space models, nonstationary processes, continuous-time finance, and machine learning. The book emphasizes hands-on implementation in R, with extensive examples based on real financial and macroeconomic data, aiming to integrate theory, methods, empirical applications, and computation in a unified way.

Recommended citation: Hong, Y., Linton, O., & Sun, J. (2026 forthcoming). "Econometrics and Time Series Methods: Theory, Applications, and R Implementation." Springer.

Stablecoins, Risk Transmission and Systemic Reconfiguration in a Fragmented USD Access System: Evidence from Quantile Time-Frequency Analysis

Published in Systems, 2026

This article studies Argentina as a fragmented USD access system and uses quantile time-frequency connectedness analysis to examine risk transmission among official, parallel, and stablecoin-based dollar channels.

Recommended citation: Wu, J., Sun, J., Feng, H., & Long, F. (2026). "Stablecoins, Risk Transmission and Systemic Reconfiguration in a Fragmented USD Access System: Evidence from Quantile Time-Frequency Analysis." Systems, 14(5), 562.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

Regression with R and Python: Description, Prediction, and Causal Inference

Publishing agreement signed with Springer, 2026

This forthcoming textbook introduces regression analysis through three connected goals: description, prediction, and causal inference. It combines statistical foundations with practical implementation in both R and Python, and is designed for readers who want to connect regression theory with modern empirical practice.

Recommended citation: Johansson, P., & Sun, J. (forthcoming 2026). "Regression with R and Python: Description, Prediction, and Causal Inference." Springer.

Virtual Water in Global Supply Chains: Trade Structure, Industrial Composition, and Policy Levers

Published in Ecological Economics, 2026

This paper uses Eora MRIO data for 189 countries (2010-2021) to map green, blue, and grey embodied-water flows and examine how virtual-water positions relate to industrial structure, trade openness, water withdrawal capacity, and growth outcomes.

Recommended citation: Jiang, W., Sun, J., Cole, M., & Zhang, Y. (2026). "Virtual water in global supply chains: Trade structure, industrial composition, and policy levers." Ecological Economics, 248, 109068.
Publisher / DOI page | BibTeX

talks

Royal Statistical Society Conference 2019

Published:

This talk discusses Model Averaging of Integer-Valued Autoregressive Model with Covariates, presented at the Royal Statistical Society Conference 2019.

12th Econometric Society World Congress 2020

Published:

This talk discusses Model Averaging of Integer-Valued Autoregressive Model with Covariates, presented at the 12th Econometric Society World Congress 2020.

The 4th China Econometric Scholars Forum

Published:

This talk discusses Testing Structural Breaks - A New Self-Normalization Approach Based on the Adjusted Sample Range, presented at the 第四届中国计量经济学者论坛.

Australian Meeting of the Econometric Society

Published:

This talk discusses Testing for Structural Breaks - A New Self-Normalization Approach Based on the Adjusted Sample Range, presented at the Australian Meeting of the Econometric Society.

CFE-CMStatistics 2021

Published:

This talk discusses Confidence Interval Construction - A New Self-Normalization Approach Based on Adjusted-Range, presented at CFE-CMStatistics 2021.

Chow’s Young Scholars Forum

Published:

This talk discusses Kolmogorov-Smirnov Type Testing for Structural Breaks: A New Adjusted-Range Based Self-Normalization Approach, presented at the 邹至庄讲座青年学者论坛.

2024 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society

Published:

This talk discusses Sequential Change Point Detection for Time Series – An Adjusted-Range Based Approach, presented at the 2024 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society.

75th European Meeting of the Econometric Society

Published:

This talk discusses Confidence Interval Construction Based on the Adjusted-Range Self-Normalization Approach, presented at the 75th European Meeting of the Econometric Society.

Global Virtual Water Flows and a Water Resource Curse?

Published:

This talk discusses Global Virtual Water Flows and a Water Resource Curse?, presented at an online seminar jointly organized by the IAEE Asia-Oceania Research Committee, the Institute for Global Governance and Innovation (IGGI), City University of Hong Kong, and the Energy Economics and Environmental Management Research Laboratory (E3M).

teaching

Introduction to Finance

Undergraduate course, University of Liverpool, Management School, 2011

As the Module Leader for Introduction to Finance, I delivered the course to undergraduate students, covering essential topics in financial markets, investment theory, and financial decision-making. I guided students through fundamental finance principles, including time value of money, capital budgeting, and risk management.

Corporate Finance (MBA)

MBA course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2013

This MBA course covers the fundamental principles of corporate finance, including capital budgeting, financing decisions, and the cost of capital. As the lead instructor, I guided students through the application of these concepts to real-world corporate situations, helping them understand the financial decision-making process within firms. Topics such as financial leverage, dividend policy, and merger and acquisition (M&A) were also explored in-depth.

English for Finance (MBA)

MBA course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2013

This MBA course is designed to improve students’ proficiency in business English, with a specific focus on financial terminology and business communication. The course covered key topics such as financial reports, investment strategies, and economic policy discussions. As the lead instructor, I focused on helping students use English in professional finance contexts, enabling them to engage with global financial literature and communicate effectively in international financial markets.

Guest Lecturer in Financial Time Series Analysis

Guest lecture, China University of Political Science and Law, Department of Economics, 2013

As a guest lecturer in the Financial Time Series Analysis course, I delivered lectures on the key methods for analyzing financial data, including autoregressive models (AR), GARCH models, and techniques for modeling market volatility. I guided students through real-world examples and provided insights into how econometric tools are applied in financial economics.

Financial Economics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2014

This course introduces the core theory of financial economics, with a focus on key topics such as asset pricing, market efficiency, and investment theory. As the lead instructor, I guided students through financial models and provided practical exercises in analyzing financial markets.

Financial Econometrics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2014

This course focuses on financial econometrics, covering the core theories and methodologies used to model and analyze financial data. As the lead instructor, I provided lectures on the key econometric techniques and their applications in finance, including asset pricing models, market efficiency, volatility forecasting, and derivative pricing.

Financial Economics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2015

This course introduces the core theory of modern financial economics and financial management. It covers aspects such as portfolio choice, systems of financial markets, arbitrage, option pricing, credit rationing, deposit contracts, banking, and regulation of banks.

Financial Statistics and Econometrics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2015

This course focuses on financial statistics and econometrics, designed for postgraduate students. The aim is to equip students with the skills needed to analyze and model financial data using advanced econometric and time series methods. As the lead instructor, I guided students in applying these techniques to real-world financial datasets.

Financial Statistics and Econometrics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2017

This course focuses on financial statistics and econometrics, designed for postgraduate students. The aim is to equip students with the skills needed to analyze and model financial data using advanced econometric and time series methods. As the lead instructor, I guided students in applying these techniques to real-world financial datasets.

Financial Statistics and Econometrics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2018

This course focuses on financial statistics and econometrics, aimed at developing students’ ability to analyze and model financial data using both traditional econometric methods and time series models. As the lead instructor, I guided students through topics such as asset pricing models, market efficiency, volatility modeling (e.g., ARCH/GARCH), and the pricing of financial derivatives.

Financial Data Modeling and Analysis

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2019

This course explores methods used to model and analyze financial data, focusing on techniques such as time series modeling, ARIMA, and GARCH models. As the lead instructor, I guided students in analyzing real financial data and implementing modeling techniques using R and MATLAB.

Financial Economics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2019

This course provides an introduction to the field of financial economics, focusing on asset pricing, financial markets, and investment theory. As the lead instructor, I delivered lectures on economic models for understanding market behavior and portfolio management. The course also covered key concepts in financial decision-making.

Financial Data Modeling and Analysis

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2020

This course explores methods used to model and analyze financial data, focusing on techniques such as time series modeling, ARIMA, and GARCH models. As the lead instructor, I guided students in analyzing real financial data and implementing modeling techniques using R and MATLAB.

Financial Econometrics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2020

In this course, I taught financial econometrics with a focus on asset pricing models and volatility forecasting. Students were introduced to advanced econometric tools such as GARCH models, copulas, and machine learning methods. The course covers key topics like time series modeling, ARCH/GARCH models, nonparametric methods, asset pricing, volatility modeling, and risk management. As the lead instructor, I guided students through real-world applications using R programming.

Nonparametric Statistics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2020

This course covers nonparametric statistical methods, focusing on the application of these methods to real-world data. As the lead instructor, I was responsible for delivering lectures, preparing materials, and guiding students through key concepts such as rank-based methods, the Wilcoxon test, and kernel density estimation.

Nonparametric Statistics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2021

As the lead instructor for this course, I taught nonparametric statistical methods, including hypothesis testing, the Mann-Whitney U test, and Kruskal-Wallis test. Students were trained in applying these methods to real data, with a focus on understanding their applications in economics and finance.

Financial Econometrics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2022

In this course, I taught financial econometrics with a focus on asset pricing models and volatility forecasting. Students were introduced to advanced econometric tools such as GARCH models, copulas, and machine learning methods. The course covers key topics like time series modeling, ARCH/GARCH models, nonparametric methods, asset pricing, volatility modeling, and risk management. As the lead instructor, I guided students through real-world applications using R programming.

Nonparametric Statistics

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2023

This course focused on nonparametric statistics, including methods for rank tests, kernel density estimation, and bootstrap methods. I led lectures, assignments, and guided students through real data analysis, emphasizing the application of these methods in econometrics.

Advanced Time Series Analysis

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2024

This course focuses on advanced time series analysis techniques, including cointegration, VAR models, and state-space models. The course also covers regression models, univariate and multivariate time series, volatility modeling, nonparametric and semiparametric methods, HAR inference, autoregressive filtering, and continuous-time finance, with an emphasis on real-world financial and macroeconomic data. As the lead instructor, I provided students with the skills to model complex financial and economic time series data.

Advanced Time Series Analysis

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2025

This course focuses on advanced time series analysis techniques, including cointegration, VAR models, and state-space models. The course also covers regression models, univariate and multivariate time series, volatility modeling, nonparametric and semiparametric methods, HAR inference, autoregressive filtering, and continuous-time finance, with an emphasis on real-world financial and macroeconomic data. As the lead instructor, I provided students with the skills to model complex financial and economic time series data.

Advanced Time Series Analysis

Postgraduate course, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, School of Economics and Management, 2026

This course focuses on advanced time series analysis techniques, including cointegration, VAR models, and state-space models. The course also covers regression models, univariate and multivariate time series, volatility modeling, nonparametric and semiparametric methods, HAR inference, autoregressive filtering, and continuous-time finance, with an emphasis on real-world financial and macroeconomic data. As the lead instructor, I provided students with the skills to model complex financial and economic time series data.